Hold on to your job!
Yup, got a tight handle on it! Why am I doing this though?
Because the International Labour Organisation expects the world job scene to get worse.
Isn’t it bad enough already?
By 2019, the number of people out of work globally will rise to more than 212 million, up from 201 million now, according to the ILO World Employment and Social Outlook — Trends 2015. The report warns, “The global jobs market will continue to deteriorate in the coming years, while rising income inequality and high youth unemployment will stoke more social unrest.”
And all this is because?
Of the global financial meltdown. In fact, the global employment gap, which measures the number of jobs lost since the start of the crisis, currently stands at 61 million. And the report says if new labour market entrants over the next five years are taken into account, another 280 million jobs need to be created by 2019 to close the global employment gap caused by the crisis.
Can we do that?
Sigh! The ILO says global economic growth still remains significantly below pre-crisis trends and is too slow to close the output and employment gaps. According to projections by the IMF, global economic growth will accelerate slightly over the coming two years thanks in part to lower oil prices and improved financial conditions in some advanced economies.
Phew! I thought we were done for!
However, the report says that even if these projections materialise, it is unlikely that the existing employment and social gaps will be closed significantly.
What social gaps?
The ILO predicts income inequality will continue to widen. Already, the richest 10 per cent earn 30-40 per cent of the world’s total income while the poorest 10 per cent earn around two per cent of total income.
That’s another Occupy Wall Street movement brewing…
Also, if you are young, you will be a lot worse off in the future. The youth unemployment rate is expected to be “practically three times higher” than that of their adult counterparts.
What about India?
In India, and South Asia broadly, jobless growth persists, with high informal employment and working poverty. The region had an average annual economic growth of 6.1 per cent from 2009 to 2014 but corresponding employment expansion was only 1.4 per cent each year for the same period.
There’s no reprieve at all?
The greatest single source of new jobs will be found in private sector services, such as business and administrative services, and real estate. Public services in healthcare, education and administration will continue to employ more, representing 15 per cent of total jobs.
And the unlucky ones?
If you work in the manufacturing sector, prepare for shocks. Industrial employment is expected to stagnate at slightly below 22 per cent; construction is expected to decline while employment levels in manufacturing will remain largely unchanged over the next five years, accounting for only 12 per cent of all jobs in 2019.
Is there any part of the world that’s doing well?
Really. ILO says the region continues to record strong growth rates, despite “infrastructural weaknesses and institutional challenges”. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest labour force participation rate of all regions, estimated at 70.9 per cent, against a global average of 63.5 per cent in 2014.